IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-14.0	#342
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#302
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.6	#340

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.4	#340

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	16.0	15.1

.500 or above	0.8%	3.4%	0.6%
.500 or above in Conference	3.0%	8.1%	2.6%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	65.7%	50.2%	66.7%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 6.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.6	0.0 - 0.6
Quad 1b	0.0 - 1.3	0.0 - 1.9
Quad 2	0.1 - 3.8	0.1 - 5.7
Quad 3	0.6 - 8.9	0.7 - 14.6
Quad 4	4.6 - 11.1	5.3 - 25.7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	92	New Mexico	L	64-83	6%
Nov 13, 2018	165	@ Loyola Marymount	L	63-77	6%
Nov 17, 2018	241	Portland	L	62-72	28%
Nov 20, 2018	259	Tennessee St.	L	59-67	32%
Nov 27, 2018	191	@ Washington St.	L	64-77	8%
Dec 01, 2018	257	Sacramento St.	L	62-71	31%
Dec 03, 2018	234	@ Pepperdine	L	65-75	13%
Dec 09, 2018	121	@ San Diego	L	58-75	4%
Dec 16, 2018	168	Pacific	L	61-75	19%
Dec 19, 2018	93	@ New Mexico St.	L	58-77	3%
Dec 22, 2018	320	SIU Edwardsville	L	68-72	35%
Dec 23, 2018	110	Rider	L	66-84	6%
Dec 29, 2018	339	Morgan St.	L	68-69	55%
Jan 01, 2019	45	@ San Diego St.	L	56-80	1%
Jan 05, 2019	122	Yale	L	61-78	12%
Jan 09, 2019	282	@ UC Riverside	L	62-70	18%
Jan 12, 2019	317	@ Cal Poly	L	65-70	26%
Jan 17, 2019	201	Hawaii	L	60-72	24%
Jan 19, 2019	90	UC Irvine	L	57-76	9%
Jan 23, 2019	189	Long Beach St.	L	66-79	21%
Jan 30, 2019	143	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	62-77	6%
Feb 02, 2019	317	Cal Poly	L	65-70	44%
Feb 06, 2019	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	61-74	9%
Feb 13, 2019	131	@ UC Davis	L	58-75	5%
Feb 16, 2019	143	Cal St. Fullerton	L	62-77	15%
Feb 20, 2019	189	@ Long Beach St.	L	66-79	10%
Feb 23, 2019	131	UC Davis	L	58-75	13%
Feb 27, 2019	282	UC Riverside	L	62-70	35%
Mar 02, 2019	201	@ Hawaii	L	60-72	12%
Mar 07, 2019	177	UC Santa Barbara	L	61-74	20%
Mar 09, 2019	90	@ UC Irvine	L	57-76	3%
Projected Record						5.3 - 25.7	2.7 - 13.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1	1st
2nd										0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0							0.5	3rd
4th							0.0	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0							1.3	4th
5th						0.1	0.5	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0								2.6	5th
6th					0.3	1.5	2.3	1.0	0.1										5.3	6th
7th			0.1	1.5	4.2	4.3	1.4	0.2	0.0										11.7	7th
8th		1.0	6.3	9.2	6.4	2.0	0.3	0.0											25.2	8th
9th	12.1	19.3	14.5	6.1	1.1	0.1													53.1	9th

Total	12.1	20.4	20.8	16.8	11.9	8.0	4.6	2.5	1.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2	98.1%	0.0		0.0	0.0
13-3	50.9%	0.0		0.0	0.0
12-4	1.6%	0.0		0.0
11-5	10.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2	0.0%																							0.0
13-3	0.0%																							0.0
12-4	0.0%		1.6%	1.6%		15.0																0.0		0.0
11-5	0.1%		1.0%	1.0%		15.3															0.0		0.0	0.1
10-6	0.3%		5.2%	5.2%		15.0																0.0		0.2
9-7	0.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
8-8	1.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.0	1.6
7-9	2.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
6-10	4.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.6
5-11	8.0%																							8.0
4-12	11.9%																							11.9
3-13	16.8%																							16.8
2-14	20.8%																							20.8
1-15	20.4%																							20.4
0-16	12.1%																							12.1

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.9%